Licklider, Taylor, Herbert

J. C. R. Licklider, Robert Taylor, The Computer as a Communication Device   [ ] 

The Computer as a Communication Device
J. C. R. Licklider, Robert Taylor
Originally published in Science and Technology, April 1968. Published on KurzweilAI.net November 9, 2001.

2 years - It will take 2 years, at least, to
          bring the first interactive computer
          network up to a significant level
          of experimental activity
6 years - operational systems might reach
          critical size

pp.36-37
   Fortunately, we do not have to, for the system we envision cannot be bought at this moment.  The time scale provides a basis for genuine optimism about the cost picture.  It will take two years, at least, to bring the first interactive computer networks up to a significant level of experimental activity.  Operational systems might reach critical size in as little as six years if everyone got onto the bandwagon, but there is little point in making cost estimates for a nearer date.  So let us take six years as the target. 
p.37
   In the computer field, the cost of a unit of processing and the cost of a unit of storage have been dropping for two decades [20 years] at the rate of 50% or more every two years. 

p.37
   Such advances in capability, accompanied by reduction in cost, lead us to expect that computer facilitation will be affordable before many people are ready to take advantage of it.  The only areas the cause us concern are consoles and transmission. 

p.37
   In the field of transmission, the difficulty may be lack of competition.  At any rate, the cost of transmission is not falling nearly as fast as the cost of processing and storage.  Nor is it falling nearly as fast as we think it should fall.  Even the advent of satellites has affected the cost picture by less than a factor of two.  That fact does not cause immediate distress because (unless the distance is very great) transmission cost is not now the dominant cost.  But, at the rate things are going, in six years it will be the dominant cost.  That prospect concerns us greatly and is the strongest damper to our hopes for near-term realization of operationally significant interactive networks and significant on-line communities.  

   (Acknowledgments - Evan Herbert edited the article and acted as intermediary during its writing between Licklider in Boston and Taylor in Washington.  )